Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 4.346154 5.090107 5.912502 6.887568 8.010592 9.261931 10.760362
2025-09-28 3.114808 4.090918 5.286635 6.852353 8.841077 11.274727 14.469688
2025-10-05 2.594902 3.745689 5.278797 7.453846 10.440400 14.374371 19.921508
2025-10-12 2.128931 3.335912 5.064593 7.690768 11.541881 16.936355 25.006141
2025-10-19 1.792426 3.019957 4.893460 7.914249 12.602391 19.523448 30.408958
2025-10-26 1.497867 2.697702 4.638447 7.941156 13.334711 21.678902 35.398360
2025-11-02 1.222229 2.345345 4.264523 7.700150 13.583280 23.087496 39.364699
2025-11-09 0.984180 2.007419 3.850299 7.312031 13.511245 23.940877 42.495184
2025-11-16 0.829727 1.790807 3.607613 7.174063 13.826024 25.435244 46.805943
2025-11-23 0.712170 1.621750 3.421602 7.103821 14.237198 27.116910 51.585749
2025-11-30 0.655097 1.565007 3.440205 7.419380 15.389513 30.214353 59.162946
2025-12-07 0.577065 1.447537 3.316924 7.432709 15.956987 32.290299 65.067814
2025-12-14 0.507181 1.337523 3.197331 7.448157 16.554695 34.532091 71.609206
2025-12-21 0.445869 1.235745 3.080009 7.453272 17.136852 36.816606 78.495308
2025-12-28 0.436420 1.260553 3.252135 8.119964 19.194472 42.240571 92.112433
2026-01-04 0.401705 1.213010 3.247199 8.382458 20.406214 46.062765 102.860508
2026-01-11 0.369734 1.166072 3.235705 8.626717 21.604508 49.972116 114.154780
2026-01-18 0.330837 1.091247 3.141714 8.656630 22.313013 52.902016 123.651393
2026-01-25 0.284318 0.983467 2.943541 8.395718 22.301414 54.251318 129.856823
2026-02-01 0.238367 0.866234 2.698652 7.975102 21.845395 54.550624 133.760755
2026-02-08 0.208609 0.793337 2.563882 7.825550 22.041620 56.356964 141.223758
2026-02-15 0.185054 0.735348 2.461712 7.749399 22.414285 58.609787 149.917882
2026-02-22 0.176225 0.726587 2.505124 8.091523 23.925007 63.731544 165.805196